eLearnign and Wall Street

Two things tell you an industry is maturing and will not be as much fun. The US Census Department recognizes it in the North American Industry Classification System. A major benefit is that news and other researchers now have access to county level data. The second is when Wall Street creates an industry index fund for investors.

About four years ago we vigorously campaigned the U.S. Census Department to include eLearning but to no avail. Looks like many more years of waiting because of their 7 year upgrade cycle. At about the same time I created and have been tracking a virtual eLearning Industry Index fund. With dominance by a couple of major players, consolidations, failures, Riverdeep going private, and other major players owned by larger companies the results are too volatile to be ready for Wall Street.

Last week I decided to checkout the current eLearning territory with a Wall Street researcher.

S. Andrew St. Pierre, VP Information Technology research for citigroup’s Smith Barney was in town giving a presentation at the Arizona Technology Council’s breakfast “Council Connect.” His delightful presentation included analysis and forecasts for data networks, storage and software. At one point he mentioned that IT industries were becoming mature. There are lots of new features but no new “killer software application” was on the horizon. He just saw expanded use of current technologies. He lamented the lack of “disruptive technologies” reaching the IT marketplace. (Image how the turbojet engine disrupted the piston engine aviation market in the 1950-60’s)

Not being able to resist the temptation, I asked him if Wall Street tecno-gurus ever considered “eruptive markets.” “If Arizona goes to 1:1 eLearning in ten years, the market for data networks to deliver instruction will increase 20 to 100 times. Computers with software will increase 20 times to 300,000 units a year.” From his answer I once again realized that Wall Street is almost totally focused in the short term – one year or less. The serve speculators; including the institutions not long range investors. The longer range investors; “value” (5 to 10 year horizon) and “income” (10 to 30 years); are of little interest (no-fees!!!).

Chatting with Andrew afterward he lamented the lack of focus on eLearning emerging markets with longer range analysis and forecasts. But he did say that his investment tips for the start of 2007 was HP (great recovery) and Cisco (data networks).

Between The Lines

01/10/07

We all interpolate our understanding of the world and sometimes extrapolate. And then we just fantasize.

As I sat with partner Bob in a capital hearing room on Monday and listened to Governor Napolitano give her State of the State speech, I let my mind wander into a dream state:

“modernize our classroom curricula … success in the knowledge economy … give our children nothing but the best…”

” >>> eLearning eLearning eLearning;

“curiosity, discovery and invention … technology embedded in our schools – to enhance student learning process …”

>>> Wake up, I am just dreaming?;

“new ways to engage them in learning, to individualize their learning paths ... change our learning environments to match 21^st century needs …

>>> eSATS all the way!;

“get results to teachers, students and parents in real-time so we can help students in real time. Nothing else suffices …”

>>> Real-time means formative assessment with coaching and scaffolding integrated into digital curriculum.;

“School Facilities Board … to build schools … providing an educational environment for our children to learn and compete in 21^st century.”

>>> Stop building schools with 20^th century connectivity and LANS, and embrace the age of high speed broadband.

“our universities … to graduate more students faster.”

>>> K-12 too – faster, better, and more $ for teachers.

“return on our investment will be profound…graduates … will thrive on an economy where creativity, ingenuity and adoption are the rules of the game.)

>>> In this economy, eLearning rules!

“our economy … runs on knowledge and innovation”

>>> What could be more innovative and knowledge based that Arizona’s emerging eLearning industry.

“the bedrock ... infrastructure … includes roads, water supply, … land preservation, … housing, health care, … coordinated growth planning.”

>>> Opps! And where is broadband telecommunications to every Arizona citizen?

“new Arizona Water Institute…”

>>> How about a Digital Curriculum Institute?

“ Innovation Arizona … Education, Foundation, Innovation … roadmap for successful 21^st century… necessities for a rapidly growing state…”

>>> And this grow is profound, growing from 1,000,000 K-12 students to 1,400,000 in 2017. eLearning is not only a great way to increase academic performance, but as the design method for 400 new schools.

Then Bob poked me in the ribs to bring me back to the real world and reminded me we still had work to do.

eLearning and the New Economy

o1/08/07

News Flash: AZ Republic page V6, 1/7/7. Editorial on Managing Arizona’s Growth. “Running Faster Just to Keep Pace” Item # 1 Educating our Kids:

Along with all the funding issues and teacher salary imperatives, we see for the first time “making sure that technology is integrated into the classroom to keep our kids competitive…”

Maybe the eLearning buzz has started and will grow over the year.

New Economy:

Governor Napolitano included capitalizing on the new economy in her acceptance speech at the inauguration last week. Let’s see what this really means for Arizona. In 1999 there was a major planning process by Governor Hull with many hundreds of participants statewide to study the new economy with the Arizona Partnership for the New Economy (APNE).

The final report, January 2001, “An Economy the Works for Everyone” http://www.arizonatele.com/atic/docs/APNE%20Final%20Report%202001.PDF addresses the importance to Arizona’s future and how Arizona can position itself as a leader. Immediate implementation was kicked of by participants in two of the five “hot teams”: eLearning (with Co-Chairs of Gregg Holmes of Cox Communications and Roy Herberger of Thunderbird, AGSIM); and Building Connections (with Co-Chairs of Mary Upchurch AT&T and Sergio Carlos, Hispanic Chamber of Commerce.)

Members of these teams immediately founded the Greater Arizona eLearning Industry Assoc. an economic cluster of eLearning enterprises with combined revenues of $3 billion. GAZEL was soon sanctioned as an official Arizona cluster organization by the Governor’s Strategic Partnership for Economic Development.

Other APNE participants took the Building (broadband telecommunication) Connections challenge to heart. They have been working hard within the Arizona Telecommunications and Information Council and Government Information and Telecommunications Agency to bring cost effective broadband to all of Arizona. Rural and underserved urban schools are expected to be anchor tenants in their communities.

Both GAZEL and ATIC soon realized that the third piece was missing: accelerated adoption of effective eLearning within Arizona’s K-12 classrooms. In 2003 some of these APNE participants spun off once again into a new task team: eLearning System for Arizona’s Teachers and Students (eSATS). This 20 person team has designed the next generation statewide K-12 eLearning system based on teacher-student interaction in the classroom. They had success in garnering legislative support last year and expect a major increase in support for all students this year.

It looks like our Governor and governance-business-education leadership have decided to renew their efforts to put Arizona on the New Economy track. If so, they should be delighted that the eLearning and broadband telecommunications train has left the station with a full head of steam.

Arizona Inauguration

01/04/07

Bob Rosenberg and I had a grand time at the inauguration of for Governor Napolitano, Secretary of State Brewer, Attorney General Goddard, Treasurer Martin, and Superintendent of Public Instruction Horne. Judge Sandra Day O’Connor officiated the oath of office. The Inspector of Mines was ignored.

Governor Janet Napolitano started with schools, innovation, pride and strength. Arizona has innovated before: from the hard hat, Hohokam irrigation, to scientific tools on Mars. She followed with educating 21^st Century children (math and science), teachers, the new economy (Governor Hull theme) and protecting citizens (resonated with Terry Goddard’s address.). Our #1 rating of growth will produce thriving sustainable communities. She closed with “One Arizona.” I collected an Arizona red rock poster which is now on my office wall with that two word theme.

Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne started the proceedings with (in my opinion) the grandest two minute speech I have heard in many years. He said just two things with a very loud “LISTEN UP!”.

1. Although Education Week determined Arizona is 49^th - tied with Louisiana - the real truth is that three separate national tests have determined academic performance of Arizona’s students to be above average.
2. If Arizona increased its K-12 funding from dead last to average then we could become a top ten state or even first in academic performance.

Wow!

Consider eLearning as the Governor’s is the top technology based innovation play for Arizona. Now apply to the eSATS system design about 30% of the K-12 funding increase our Superintendent of Education is recommending. Arizona could zoom (my aeronautical engineering term) to the top of 50 states plus give our economy a kick that would sustain it for decades.

eLearning Productivity

01/03/07

Student Academic Productivity

Driven by technological advances, productivity of U.S. business workers has grown about 3% a year. The current process has been driving by information, not automation. U.S. K-12 education has about 60 million student workers and only 10 million effective instructional computers. Our industry-business system has about 5 computers per worker, integrated through out their global working environment. Our students may have a few in the back of the room, or worse 50 minutes every 7 school days in a computer lab.

Schools are striving to use eLearning. They rotate/share, consider $100 palm pilots, and apply what little eLearning they have to one discipline. After 15 years of experience schools know they must focus on digital curriculum and not technology. They know they need highly interactive computing in their education system. They can almost taste the 3% increase a year in academic performance.

Did I say compounded 3% a year for ten years? Why that would sail Arizona right past Massachusetts into the lead position. Goodbye being 49^th, 43^rd, 45^th, whatever and hello number one. Hey! If Boise State can do it by force of will and some trick plays, why not Arizona?

HI-CE

http://hi-ce.org/ (Highly-Interactive Classrooms – Curricula – Computing in Education; School of Education/College of Engineering; University of Michigan) Check out for palm-sized computers for K-12 and many other nifty research papers. Ron Marx was part of the research team, before he became the Chair of the UofA College of Education.

Advanced Distributive Learning System – Wisconsin

The Academic ADL co-lab at the University of Wisconsin is hiring an executive director. State of Wisconsin, not a federal job. Contact Holly Wells 608-263-8603 hwells@uwsa.edu.

Carpe Diem Seizes the Day

01/02/007

I had a lively chat with Rick Ogston yesterday. He is president of the Carpe Diem eLearning Community a 6-12 charter school in Yuma (rogston@cdayuma.com, www.cdayuma.com , 928-210-5777.

The Carpe Diem purpose build school is designed for hybrid eLearning. This concept is spot-on. As we start moving up this innovation-transition from legacy education to eLearning there will be a good ten to fifteen years where eLearning learning model will be hybrid. We do not yet have adequate knowledge on teacher practice and digital curriculum to jump in full (hedge) hog, as their mascot implies.

The school building outer periphery has elearning stations (cubicles) for each of their 300 students. In the center are larger workshop rooms for up to 30 students. They have a special arrangement where Florida Virtual School provides the comprehensive core subject digital curriculum to the eLearning workstations. The teachers move from student to student assisting them and providing guidance. The electronic testing by the digital curriculum provides individually paced assessments of each learning module,

For Arts and many electives the student are involved and projects and programs within the Yuma community. One partner is the Yuma Community Arts Foundation. The teachers gather students in the workshop rooms to present concepts and assess their process. A very rough average of student class time is 70% learning station and 30% workshop.

Rick has two current challenges. One is finding a really good means to bring reading levels of faltering students up to the AIMS criteria level. The MCREL study, November of 2005 Robert Blomeyer (Robert.bolmeyer@elearningpt.org), http://www.ncrel.org/tech/reading/index.html, that we flagged last month has been helpful his quest.

The other challenge finding the best teacher education and professional development curriculum and sources. Rick needs to increase the capabilities of his teachers specific to his unique hybrid eLearning system.

Any ideas out there for Rick Ogston of Carpe Diem at the gateway to Arizona and the new world of eLearning.

Governor's Council On Innovation and Technology and eLearning

12/21/06

News:
The eLearning Task Force created by SB1512 met for the first time yesterday. Cathy Poplin of Arizona Department of Education was elected chairperson. The development of the Request for Proposal for the three year Middle School Math Pilot program will begin immediately. The task force decided to jump start the proposal development with five meetings within two months.

The ADE web page for the eLearning Task Force (meeting dates/times, agendas, meeting reports …) is http://www.ade.az.gov/E-Learning/.

The legislature web page that summaries the bill and appointees is http://www.azleg.gov/FormatDocument.asp?inDoc=/icommittee/Arizona+E-Learning+Task+Force.doc.htm.

Blog:

The Governor’s Council on Innovation and Technology heard from three speakers at their meeting this week.

Bill Harris, President of the Science Foundation Arizona www.sfaz.org, presented their plan to accelerate Arizona’s economic grow based in focused support in science and technology. The SFA is using a recent study by the National Academies “Rising Above the Gathering Storm” http://lab.nap.edu/nap-cgi/discover.cgi?term=Rising+above&GO.x=5&GO.y=9 to guide their efforts. The study elaborated on two critical elements: energy and math-science education.

Carol Peck, President of the Rodel Charitable Foundation, http://www.rodelfoundationaz.org/initiatives/lead_five.shtml remarked on the knowledge she gained on the effective way to use eLearning in the classroom as Superintendent of Alhambra district. Rodel has a major K-12 math initiative. Their Lead by Five study noted that “embedding technology in instructional programs has a significant effect on test scores…the effect of embedded technology rivals that of class-size reduction in the lower elementary grades…the (annual) cost is about $250 per student.”

Debra Raeder, Governor’s Office presented on the P-20 Council http://www.governor.state.az.us/P20/ completing their current effort to develop a number of polices to significantly enhance Arizona’s education system. The Pathway committee selected eLearning as one of means to implement many of the policies. At the public testimony section of the P-20 meeting I distributed the eSATS 12 page study that selected 16 emerging education policies and discussed how eLearning could provide efficient, effective, and accessible implementation.

During the public testimony of the GCIT meeting I noted that two years ago GCIT education sub committee under Barbara Clark created a significant set of eLearning recommendations http://breeze.ltc.arizona.edu/p88404065/ in the areas of formative data and teacher preparation and renewal. I recommended that GCIT address eLearning within the current context of both innovation and technology, the new P-20 policies, the progress made in the past two years including the K-12 eLearning Task Force, and growing support for eLearning implementation in our schools. After a goodly amount of very positive discussion the GCIT chair said they would consider this recommendation during the annual review of their study committee structure over the next several months. The eSATS polity-eLearning study paper was accepted for distribution to the GCIT members.

All in all, a very good ten days for Arizona K-12 eLearning at the policy level. Now on to the minor details, like implementation!!!

Correction: Many apologies to our friend Robert Blomeyer PhD. Here is the correct email address for Bob (rblomeyer@learningpt.org ) His MCREL - Learning Point Associates research report “The Effects of Technology on Reading Performance in the Middle-School Grades: A Meta-Analysis With Recommendations for Policy” is correct at. http://www.ncrel.org/tech/reading/index.html

Governor's Council On Innovation and Technology and eLearning

12/21/06

News:
The eLearning Task Force created by SB1512 met for the first time yesterday. Cathy Poplin of Arizona Department of Education was elected chairperson. The development of the Request for Proposal for the three year Middle School Math Pilot program will begin immediately. The task force decided to jump start the proposal development with five meetings within two months.

The ADE web page for the eLearning Task Force (meeting dates/times, agendas, meeting reports …) is http://www.ade.az.gov/E-Learning/.

The legislature web page that summaries the bill and appointees is http://www.azleg.gov/FormatDocument.asp?inDoc=/icommittee/Arizona+E-Learning+Task+Force.doc.htm.

Blog:

The Governor’s Council on Innovation and Technology heard from three speakers at their meeting this week.

Bill Harris, President of the Science Foundation Arizona www.sfaz.org, presented their plan to accelerate Arizona’s economic grow based in focused support in science and technology. The SFA is using a recent study by the National Academies “Rising Above the Gathering Storm” http://lab.nap.edu/nap-cgi/discover.cgi?term=Rising+above&GO.x=5&GO.y=9 to guide their efforts. The study elaborated on two critical elements: energy and math-science education.

Carol Peck, President of the Rodel Charitable Foundation, http://www.rodelfoundationaz.org/initiatives/lead_five.shtml remarked on the knowledge she gained on the effective way to use eLearning in the classroom as Superintendent of Alhambra district. Rodel has a major K-12 math initiative. Their Lead by Five study noted that “embedding technology in instructional programs has a significant effect on test scores…the effect of embedded technology rivals that of class-size reduction in the lower elementary grades…the (annual) cost is about $250 per student.”

Debra Raeder, Governor’s Office presented on the P-20 Council http://www.governor.state.az.us/P20/ completing their current effort to develop a number of polices to significantly enhance Arizona’s education system. The Pathway committee selected eLearning as one of means to implement many of the policies. At the public testimony section of the P-20 meeting I distributed the eSATS 12 page study that selected 16 emerging education policies and discussed how eLearning could provide efficient, effective, and accessible implementation.

During the public testimony of the GCIT meeting I noted that two years ago GCIT education sub committee under Barbara Clark created a significant set of eLearning recommendations http://breeze.ltc.arizona.edu/p88404065/ in the areas of formative data and teacher preparation and renewal. I recommended that GCIT address eLearning within the current context of both innovation and technology, the new P-20 policies, the progress made in the past two years including the K-12 eLearning Task Force, and growing support for eLearning implementation in our schools. After a goodly amount of very positive discussion the GCIT chair said they would consider this recommendation during the annual review of their study committee structure over the next several months. The eSATS polity-eLearning study paper was accepted for distribution to the GCIT members.

All in all, a very good ten days for Arizona K-12 eLearning at the policy level. Now on to the minor details, like implementation!!!

Correction: Many apologies to our friend Robert Blomeyer PhD. Here is the correct email address for Bob (rblomeyer@learningpt.org ) His MCREL - Learning Point Associates research report “The Effects of Technology on Reading Performance in the Middle-School Grades: A Meta-Analysis With Recommendations for Policy” is correct at. http://www.ncrel.org/tech/reading/index.html

Three Wise Gifts

12/18/06

The first wise person gave us a gift of proof the eLearning works for literacy. In November of 2005 Robert Blomeyer (Robert.bolmeyer@elearningpt.org) published the (NCREL funded)-Learning Point Associates research report. The title is “The Effects of Technology on Reading Performance in the Middle-School Grades: A Meta-Analysis With Recommendations for Policy” From 204 candidate research reports form1988 to 2005 20 passed the rigorous criteria for inclusion in the study. The thoughtful and deliberate uses of powerful eLearning digital technologies show evident evidence of making 50% improvement in assessed academic performance. Note: A 30% effect factor produces an approximate one letter grade increase in learning (D => C). http://www.ncrel.org/tech/reading/index.html

The second wise person gave us a gift of formative assessment for learning to write. “It takes, like, two seconds,” she said, beaming when she recalled that the automated essay scoring system had given her high marks for content and organization. Robin Squirrell – East Haven High School. Sophisticated Internet and classroom based systems are quickly and thoroughly providing feedback on student writing. With the teacher providing higher level skills assessment on analysis and interpretation the students write and revise at a much higher level. A Phoenix district is using this type of formative assessment system for 25,000 students. Hartford Courant, 11/25/06

The third wise person gave us a blended cyber schools and site base education. Katie Devanney, a 16-year-old from Paoli, likes the high school she has designed for herself. She takes three online courses in and a gifted literature course in a basement of a former church in Paoli and Chester (PA) County cyber charter school. She also takes a statistics course at Cabrini College. “ Freedom to plan schedules allows student to do much more: work, credit recapture, take electives and athletics. Students that can meet their individual needs and follow their interests make happy students and achieving students.

Over a dozen of Arizona public schools, both charter and traditional are delivering this flexibility to students – including Pinnacle Education under the leadership of Michael Matwick mmatwick@pin-ed.com.

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/living/education/16181331.htm

Kyrene School District

12/17/06

ELearning innovation continues to break out all over Arizona.

Kyrene district won national acclaim with its “Kyrene Teaches with Technology Project” by the National School Board Association (NSBA). Only three districts in the United States won this award in 2006. Why is the KTTP so great?

Intel made a significant early contribution by providing significant technology support in the 1990’s to a Kyrene school The result was significant learning on how to and how not to implement eLearning. This current generation of Kyrene innovation now focuses on curriculum, assessment and classrooms not computers and connectivity. The plan is not a technology plan but a long range strategic plan. Longtime and innovative Technology Director Mark Share, originally at Scottsdale in the 1990’s and now at Kyrene, has focused on evolution (not revolution) with his dedicated classroom teachers.

We had a delightful connection in the 1970’s when Superintendent Ben Furlong and Gifted Director Klonda Ball were leaders in an innovative gifted program call HIP (don’t remember the words in the acronym but Klonda had the kids chanting “Hip Hip Hip” as they walked down the halls. Klonda and I worked on founding the Arizona Association for Gifted and Talented and brainstormed the name “Potential” for the AAGT newsletter.

Like a star being found at a lunch counter in Los Angeles, the news ignores the years and decades of unheralded work behind the “instance success.” Hundreds of other Arizona districts are ready for innovative eLearning breakout. And so is the State of Arizona.

TurningPoint – Transition - Transformation

Nov 25,06

Non-Update: No further news on K-12 eLearning legislation being written nor the formation of the eLearning Task Force. After Thanksgiving – hope blooms eternal for next week.

A thank you: Brandon Ames, President of Able Information Technologies Inc. has stepped up big time in support of eSATS. We now have professional image expressed with logo, cards, folders and marketing materials designed and procured by his team. For years Able Information Technologies has provided planning, design and installation of turn key IT systems for schools. 2915 W. Fairview St., Chandler AZ 85224 480-477-0100 ww.ableinc.com.

Blog: Innovation is unique within our society does. Its center is neither in the current culture nor institutions. It centers in an emerging vision few can see and a very small group of individuals that some how link it all together.

1927 Herman Hesse “Steppenwolf” the primitive renews a structured society

1978 Hazel Henderson “Creating Alternative Futures”

1979 Willis Harman “Incomplete Guide to the Future”

1980 Marilyn Ferguson, “The Aquarian Conspiracy “ --- The past is not our potential… We can liberate the future… You are the conspiracy.

1981 Fritjof Capra “The Turning Point” --- What we need it to prepare ourselves for the great transition we are about to enter.

2004 Mark Satin “ Radical Middle” American is never been so open to innovative new energies as it is right now.

2006 David Korten “The Great Turning Point, From Empire to Earth Community” --- It is within or means to choose our future,,,, We are the ones we have been waiting for.

I guess it’s up to us. The vision is attracting attention. The grand ride is starting. There is always room for more. Jump on board.

Cheers! Ted

eLearning System for Arizona Teachers and Students Inc.

not-for-profit 501-c3 volunteer design and advocacy organization

Theodore C. Kraver Ph.D. President

602-944-8557(direct) tkraver@qwest.net http://AZelearning.org

225 West Orchid Lane Phoenix, AZ 85021